블라디미르 푸틴은 그의 권위에 대한 전례 없는 도전에 직면했습니다. 그의 최후는 어떤 모습일까요?
예브게니 프리고진(Yevgeny Prigozhin)이 그의 지도자이자 전 친구에게 도전했을 때, 그는 블라디미르 푸틴(Vladimir Putin) 권력의 단단한 가장자리를 깨뜨렸습니다.
이제 러시아 대통령이 바그너의 보스이자 악명 높은 군벌을 형사 고발로 위협하면서 그는 그 균열을 봉인하려고 시도하고 있지만 깨진 것이 다시 온전해질 수는 없습니다.
반란은 푸틴의 권위에 대한 전례 없는 도전이었고 그의 주변 사람들이 러시아 대통령을 기꺼이 켤 수 있는 첫 번째 신호였습니다.
반란은 누군가가 “최고 사령관”에게 무언가를 요구할 때 어떤 일이 일어나는지에 대한 생생하고 전개되는 예를 제공했습니다.
이제 영토 방어 17개월차에 접어든 우크라이나는 침략자들이 서로 싸우는 모습을 지켜봤습니다.
전쟁이 계속되고 배신자 Prigozhin이 망명 생활을 할 수 있게 됨에 따라 질문이 제기되어야 합니다. 블라디미르 푸틴이 만든 혼란이 그에게 다가오고 있습니까?
푸틴은 결국 무너질 것이다.
모스크바의 전 호주 외교관이자 러시아 분석가이자 현재 ANU 유럽 연구 센터의 객원 연구원인 Kyle Wilson은 궁극적으로 두 가지 옵션이 있다고 말했습니다.
그는 “그는 사실상 종신 대통령이 되기 위해 헌법을 개정했기 때문에 임기 중 죽거나 임기 중에 축출될 것입니다. 둘 중 하나가 일어날 것”이라고 말했습니다.
“우리가 말할 수 없는 것은 그것이 일어날 수 있는 때입니다.”
러시아 역사는 대통령이 어떻게 대통령직에서 축출될 수 있고 어떤 조건이 그 결과로 이어질 수 있는지에 대한 몇 가지 단서를 제공합니다.
새로운 역학도 작용하고 있으며 “불신과기만이 만연하고 이기적인 규칙”이 있는 비밀스럽고 마피아 같은 상태는 쉽게 놀라움을 줄 수 있습니다.
러시아 전문가이자 전 모스크바 주재 대사인 피터 테쉬(Peter Tesch)는 호주 전략 정책 연구소(Australian Strategic Policy Institute)에 기고한 글에서 “푸틴의 독선적인 집권으로 러시아의 정치 지형이 근본적으로 바뀌었다”고 말했다.
“그의 지금까지 의문의 여지가 없었던 권위가 손상되었으며, 아마도 치명적일 것입니다.”
화력을 가진 친구
푸틴은 이제 Prigozhin과 Wagner에 자금을 지원하는 것을 인정했으며 일부 전문가들은 군벌에 대한 후한 지불이 반란이 중단된 거래의 일부였을 수도 있다고 제안합니다.
Wagner는 유일한 러시아 민간 군사 회사와는 거리가 멀고 Prigozhin은 푸틴 네트워크에서 자신의 군대를 고용하도록 허용된 유일한 독재자가 아닙니다.
오픈 소스 정보 그룹인 Molfar는 최소 37개의 그룹을 식별했으며 그들의 연결을 크렘린에 매핑했다고 주장합니다.
이 그룹은 기술적으로 불법인 경우에도 녹색 조명을 받고 대통령이 직접 승인합니다.
그러나 이 부대는 중무장하고 있으며, Prigozhin의 도전 이후 일부 분석가들은 이제 그들이 푸틴이 곪아가도록 허용한 위협이라고 믿고 있습니다.
어떤 시나리오에서는 대통령이 폭력을 독점하지 않을 것입니다.
워싱턴의 설립자 드미트리 알페로비치는 “[지난] 주말까지는 그럴 것이라고 생각하지 않았지만, 이제 푸틴은 자신이 얼마나 약한지, 군대, 방위군, 내무부에서 얼마나 적은 지원을 받고 있는지를 보여주었다”고 말했다. 기반 싱크 탱크 Silverado Policy Accelerator는 그의 팟캐스트 Geopolitics Decanted에서 말했습니다.
Alperovitch는 FSB가 “무장 봉기를 막기”에 충분하지 않을 것이라고 말했습니다.
“당신의 고도로 유능한 준군사조직을 막는 것만으로는 충분하지 않습니다. 이 사람들은 러시아 최고의 무기로 완전히 무장했습니다. 그들은 말 그대로 가장 현대적인 방공 시스템인 PANTSIR 방공 시스템을 실행하고 있었습니다.
“그래서 이것은 푸틴이 직면한 주요 문제입니다.”
Prigozhin의 군대는 모스크바로 행진하는 동안 하늘에서 헬리콥터 6대와 비행기 1대를 쏘았지만 그는 러시아 군의 무력을 만나지 못했습니다.
블라디미르 푸틴은 민간인 사망의 위험을 감수할 수 없었습니다.
“고속도로를 행진하고 있는 것은 프리고진의 사병뿐 아니라 자가용과 사람들이 뒤따르고 있었기 때문에 푸틴의 정규군이 프리고진의 군대를 폭격하거나 쏘는 것이 매우 어려웠습니다. 러시아 전문가이자 ANU의 객원 연구원인 레오니드 페트로프(Leonid Petrov)가 말했습니다.
이것이 진행되는 동안 모스크바의 엘리트들은 출구 전략을 제정하기 시작했습니다.
“[프리고진의] 군대가 화난 러시아인들을 수도로 데려오고 학살이 시작될 것이기 때문입니다.” 페트로프 박사가 말했습니다.
“따라서 특히 역외 은행 계좌를 가지고 있고 오랫동안 출구 전략을 준비해 온 과두 지배자들은 그들이 개인 제트기를 타고 날아갈 진실의 순간임을 깨달았습니다.”
카네기 러시아 유라시아 센터의 타티아나 스타노바야(Tatiana Stanovaya)는 뉴요커에게 프리고진이 모스크바에 도달했다면 “사람들이 푸틴과 그의 정권을 방어하기 위해 봉기하지 않았을 것”이라고 말했다.
그녀는 “엘리트들은 흩어지고, 시민들은 서둘러 은행에서 돈을 인출하고 도망쳤을 것이며, 그렇지 못한 사람들은 관망하는 방식을 택했을 것”이라고 말했다.
“푸틴이 등장하면서 이것은 우리에게 중요한 교훈이 됩니다.
점점 초연해지고 엘리트들이 불안하고 절박해짐에 따라 누군가가 일어나 정권에 도전하는 것이 가능합니다.
“프리고진의 반란은 이러한 위험을 증폭시킬 뿐입니다.”
내전 또는 봉기
러시아의 권력자가 블라디미르 푸틴을 전복시키려면 러시아군이 물러서서 아무것도 하지 않거나 쿠데타의 일부가 되어야 합니다.
윌슨은 “푸틴을 축출할 수 있는 것은 군대뿐이거나 다른 세력이고 러시아 국민”이라고 말했다.
“우크라이나 전쟁에 대해 러시아 국민들 사이에 얼마나 많은 반대나 환멸이 있는지 우리는 알 수 없지만 러시아 역사는 양동이에 물이 한 방울씩 채워지는 것과 같은 티핑 포인트가 있음을 시사합니다. 충분히 많은 사람들이 푸틴을 위협하기 위해 거리로 나왔다.”
푸틴에 따르면 승리는 도난 당했고 “군대와 국가 뒤에서 음모, 말다툼 및 정치 활동”으로 인해 군대와 국가가 붕괴되어 내전으로 이어졌습니다.
그것은 놀라운 비교였으며 역사가들과 분석가들은 푸틴이 사건의 순서를 혼동했다고 재빨리 지적했습니다.
존 리처드슨 러시아·동유럽 주재 호주 고위 외교관은 “그의 연설에서 가장 우스꽝스러운 부분은 마치 1917년 같다고 말한 것”이라며 “승리의 턱에서 패배를 빼앗아 등을 찌르는 것과 같다”고 말했다.
“군대는 이미 와해되고 있었고 끔찍한 상태였습니다. 차르가 퇴위하고 그의 정권이 무너진 이유 중 일부입니다.”
Petrov 박사는 역사가 반복되고 있다고 믿는다고 말했습니다.
그는 “첫날부터 푸틴이 러시아 내전을 위한 조건을 만들고 있다는 것이 꽤 분명했다”고 말했다.
“그는 다른 집단에 대해 [그] 인구 집단을 적대시하고 있습니다. 그는 범죄자들을 감옥에서 내보내고, 무장시키고, 최전선으로 보내고 있습니다.”
Petrov 박사는 정권과 Prigozhin 사이에 대결이 있기 전에 “그냥 시간 문제”라고 믿었다고 말했습니다.
“우리는 19세기 중국에서, 또는 20세기 초 군벌들이 사병을 보유했던 러시아 내전에서 그것을 보았다”고 그는 말했다.
“먼저 그들은 권력과 정권을 공격할 것이고, 그런 다음 그들은 서로 싸우기 시작하고 마침내 한 그룹이 다른 그룹을 압도할 것입니다.”
2024년 러시아 대선
러시아인들은 내년 3월 대선에서 투표를 하게 되는데, 이는 블라디미르 푸틴이 11월에 출마 여부를 선언해야 한다는 의미다.
그가 사임할 것이라는 기대는 없지만 Peter Tesch가 쓴 것처럼 “그는 이제 파손된 제품이고 그로 인해 심하게 파손되었습니다.”
러시아 선거는 투명하지 않으며 지난번 투표에서 푸틴이 권력을 장악했을 때 감시자들은 결과가 “미리 예정되고 불공평하다”는 것을 발견했지만 행사 자체가 기회를 제공할 수 있습니다.
Richardson 씨는 투표가 “엘리트의 다른 부분 사이에서 약간의 재고를 불러일으키는 순간이 될 수 있다”고 말했다.
“나는 그가 쉽게 포기할 것이라고 생각하지 않지만, 다른 세력이 이 사람이 그의 유용성을 더 오래 살았다고 결정하는 순간이 될 수 있습니다.”라고 그는 말했습니다.
최근 푸틴의 전 경호원인 알렉세이 듀민이 그의 후계자로 손질되고 있다는 소문이 다시 불붙었다.
“그는 Prigozhin을 만난 사람이었습니다. 아마도 그것이 그가 접근한 이유일 수도 있고, 순전히 우연의 일치일 수도 있지만 그렇지 않을 수도 있습니다.”라고 Petrov 박사는 말했습니다.
“어쩌면 듀민이 의논하기로 되어 있었는데 이제 우리는 후계자의 이름을 알고 있습니다.”
Petrov 박사는 “반란뿐만 아니라 내전, 또 다른 혁명에서 러시아를 구한 것은 Dyumin이었습니다”라는 메시지를 보낼 수 있다고 말했습니다.
윌슨 씨는 푸틴의 마음 속에 후계자가 있는지 의심스러웠지만 궁극적이고 합법적인 이름은 국가 기밀로 유지되어야 한다고 말했습니다.
그는 “생각해보면 필연적으로 그 이름이 나타나고 사람들이 후계자에 대해 생각하기 시작하면 권력은 푸틴에게서 스며나오는 것이 아니라 그에게서 흘러나온다”고 말했다.
“사람들은 그를 떠나 후계자와 연관되기 시작할 것입니다.”
블라디미르 푸틴을 둘러싼 주요 인물
선택권이 주어지면 대부분의 전문가들은 블라디미르 푸틴이 가능한 한 오랫동안 크렘린에 남을 것이라는 데 동의합니다.
그는 이미 공직자의 연령 제한을 해제하는 법안을 통과시켰고 그 변화는 그가 적어도 83세까지 러시아를 이끌 수 있음을 의미합니다.
윌슨은 “후계자가 없고 푸틴이 평화롭게 죽거나 축출될 것이라고 생각한다”고 말했다.
런던에 기반을 둔 정치학자이자 러시아 전문가인 Mark Galeotti는 The Economist에 이번 위기로 인해 블라디미르 푸틴이 “다음 위기에 대처할 수 없게 될 것”이라고 썼습니다.
“자신의 이익보다는 신념에서 그를 지원하는 무자비한 기회주의자들의 엘리트를 만든 그는 이제 그가 권력을 떠나는 위험이 그를 반대하는 위험이 더 크다고 충분히 많은 사람들이 결론을 내리는 날을 두려워해야 합니다.”
어제 오전 6시 11분에 게시됨
Vladimir Putin faced an unprecedented challenge to his authority. What could his eventual end look like?
By Emily Clark
Posted Yesterday at 6:11am
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When Yevgeny Prigozhin challenged his leader and former friend, he fractured the hard edge of Vladimir Putin’s power.
Now, with the Russian president having threatened the Wagner boss and notorious warlord with criminal charges, he is attempting to seal up that crack, but what is broken can rarely be whole again.
The mutiny was an unprecedented challenge to Putin’s authority and the first sign those around him could be willing to turn on the Russian president.
The revolt provided a live and unfolding example of what happens when someone demands something of the “supreme commander-in-chief”.
Why Putin has never looked so vulnerable
Ukraine, now entering its 17th month of defending its territory, watched as its invaders fought among themselves.
As the war grinds on and the traitor Prigozhin is allowed to live on in exile, the question must be asked: Is the chaos Vladimir Putin has created closing in on him?
Putin will eventually fall.
Kyle Wilson, former Australian diplomat in Moscow, Russia analyst and current visiting fellow at the Centre for European Studies at ANU, said ultimately, there were two options.
“He will either die in office because he amended the constitution, in effect to make him president for life, or he will be ousted while he’s in office — one of those two things will happen,” he said.
“What we cannot say is when that might happen.”
Russian history provides a few clues as to how the president could be ousted from office and what conditions could lead to that end.
There are new dynamics at play, too, and the secretive, mafia-like state where “mistrust and deceit prevail and self-interest rules”, could easily produce some surprises.
“Russia’s political landscape has changed fundamentally, with Putin’s uncontested reign over,” leading Russia expert and former ambassador to Moscow Peter Tesch wrote for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
“His hitherto unquestioned authority is compromised, perhaps fatally.”
Friends with firepower
Putin has now admitted to funding Prigozhin and Wagner, and some experts suggest a generous payment to the warlord may have even been part of the deal that saw the mutiny aborted.
Wagner is far from the only Russian private military company and Prigozhin is not the only strongman in Putin’s network who has been allowed to hire his own army.
Open-source intelligence group Molfar claims to have identified at least 37 groups and has mapped their connections to the Kremlin.
These groups are green-lit and endorsed by the president himself, even if they are technically illegal.
But these outfits are heavily armed and, in the wake of Prigozhin’s challenge, some analysts now believe they are a threat Putin has allowed to fester.
In some scenarios, the president would not hold the monopoly on violence.
“I didn’t think that this was likely until [last] weekend, but now Putin has demonstrated how weak he is, how little support he’s got across the military, and National Guard and interior troops,” Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of the Washington-based think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, said on his podcast Geopolitics Decanted.
Alperovitch said the FSB would not be enough “to stop an armed insurrection”.
“It’s not enough to stop your highly capable paramilitaries. These guys are armed to the teeth with the best of Russian weapons. They were running PANTSIR air-defence systems, literally the most modern air-defence systems.
“So this is a major problem that Putin is facing.”
Prigozhin’s forces shot six helicopters and a plane out of the sky on his march towards Moscow, but he was not met with force from Russian services.
Vladimir Putin could not risk civilian deaths.
“It was not just Prigozhin’s private army which was marching on the highway, but also the private cars, and people were following, and that made it very hard for Putin’s regular army to either bomb or shoot any of Prigozhin’s troops because they were mixed with the population,” Russia expert and visiting fellow to ANU Leonid Petrov said.
While this was playing out, Moscow’s elite were starting to enact their exit strategies.
“Because [Prigozhin’s] army would bring the angry population of Russians to the capital, and the slaughter will begin,” Dr Petrov said.
“So oligarchs, particularly those who have offshore bank accounts and who have been preparing an exit strategy for a long time, realised that was the moment of truth for them to take their private jet and fly away.”
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Tatiana Stanovaya from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre told the New Yorker her intelligence was that if Prigozhin had reached Moscow “people wouldn’t have risen up to defend Putin and his regime”.
“The elites would have dispersed, citizens would have rushed to withdraw their money from banks and fled, and those who couldn’t would have adopted a wait-and-see approach,” she said.
“This serves as an important lesson for us — with Putin appearing increasingly detached and the elites feeling anxious and desperate, it’s possible for someone to rise and challenge the regime.
“Prigozhin’s mutiny will only amplify these risks.”
Civil war or uprising
For a Russian power player to overthrow Vladimir Putin, the Russian forces would have to either step aside and do nothing or be part of the coup.
“It’s really only the army that could oust Putin, or one other force and that’s the Russian people,” Mr Wilson said.
“How much opposition or disillusionment there is among the Russian populace with this war in Ukraine we just don’t know, but Russian history suggests that there is a tipping point, rather like a bucket being filled, drop by drop with water, at which [point] a sufficiently large number of people come out into the streets to threaten Putin.”
In an address after Prigozhin’s mutiny had been dealt with, Putin once again referenced Russian history, saying: “A blow like this was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was fighting in the first world war.”
According to Putin, victory had been stolen and that “intrigues, squabbles and politicking behind the backs of the army and the nation” caused the army and state to collapse, leading to civil war.
It was a surprising comparison, and historians and analysts were quick to point out Putin had the order of events confused.
“The most ridiculous part of his speech was saying that it was like 1917, in the sense it was like a stab in the back which snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,” former senior Australian diplomat in Russia and Eastern Europe Jon Richardson said.
“The army was already disintegrating and in terrible condition. That’s partly why the tsar abdicated and his regime fell apart.”
The Wagner mutiny will corrode Russia’s military power
Dr Petrov said he believed history was repeating.
“From day one, it was pretty clear Putin is creating [conditions] for the internal, domestic civil war in Russia,” he said.
“He is antagonising one group of [the] population against the other, he is letting criminals out of prison, arming them, sending them to the front line.”
Dr Petrov said he believed “it was just a matter of time” before there was a confrontation between the regime and Prigozhin.
“We saw that in the 19th century in China, or in the Russian Civil War in the early 20th century when warlords had their private armies,” he said.
“Firstly, they would attack the power, the regime, then they would start struggling against each other and, finally, one group will prevail over the other.”
Russia’s 2024 election
Russians will vote in presidential elections in March next year, which means Vladimir Putin will have to declare his intention to run or not in November.
There is no expectation that he will step down, but as Peter Tesch wrote: “He now is damaged goods, and badly damaged at that.”
Russian elections are not transparent, and last time a vote returned Putin to power monitors found the result to be “pre-ordained and unfair”, but the event itself might present an opportunity.
Mr Richardson said the vote “could be a moment that provokes some rethinking amongst the different parts of the elite”.
“I don’t think he’ll be giving up easily, but that could be a moment when different forces decide maybe this guy’s outlived his usefulness,” he said.
In recent days, rumours that Putin’s former bodyguard Alexei Dyumin is being groomed as his successor have reignited.
“He was the one who met with Prigozhin. Maybe that’s why he was approached, maybe it’s just pure coincidence but maybe not,” Dr Petrov said.
“Maybe Dyumin was supposed to discuss it and now we know the name of the successor.”
Dr Petrov said that would allow messaging along the lines of “it was Dyumin who saved Russia not just from mutiny, but from civil war, from another revolution”.
Mr Wilson doubted there was a successor in Putin’s mind, but said any eventual and legitimate name would need to remain a state secret.
“Because if you think about it, inevitably, once that name appears and people start to think about a successor, then power doesn’t just seep away from Putin, it flows away from him,” he said.
“People will start to leave him and associate themselves with the successor.”
Key players surrounding Vladimir Putin
Yevgeny Prigozhin
Once a close confidant of the president, the man known as Putin’s chef stepped forward as the head of private military company the Wagner group in 2022. His mercenaries were active on the battlefield in Ukraine until he staged a mutiny in June 2023, demanding Russia’s top military brass stand down. He was exiled to Belarus.
Sergei Shoigu
One of the longest-serving government officials in Russian history, Shoigu became defence minister in 2012. His lack of battlefield experience saw him heavily criticised during the Ukraine campaign. When Prigozhin last month demanded that he stand down, Putin sided with Shoigu — one of his most loyal allies.
Valery Gerasimov
The chief of the general staff of the Russian Armed Forces was appointed in January 2023 to oversee the ongoing war in Ukraine. He has come under intense criticism over failures in the planning and execution of Russia’s invasion. He has not been seen in public since Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded he stand down in June 2023.
Sergei Surovikin
Nicknamed “General Armageddon” for his brutal reputation on the battlefield in Syria, Surovikin is a senior commander of Russia’s troops in Ukraine. He was brought in to lead the war effort in October 2022, but later demoted below Valery Gerasimov. His longstanding links to Prigozhin have cast doubt on his position since the Wagner mutiny.
Nikolai Patrushev
Russia’s Security Council secretary is a former intelligence officer who has worked closely with Putin since his 1970s KGB days. He now heads one of the most powerful institutions in Russia and is said to command considerable influence over the president.
Dmitry Medvedev
The former president was seen as a seat warmer for Putin, allowing his boss to pull the strings and then stepping aside for his return in 2012. As deputy chairman of the Security Council, Medvedev became a vocal critic of the West and proponent of the Ukraine war, but he has been less prominent since the Wagner mutiny.
Alexander Lukashenko
“Europe’s last dictator” is the only Belarusian president since the former Soviet state became independent in 1991. Lukashenko allowed Putin’s troops to invade Ukraine through Belarus and has supported the war by donating ammunition, storing Russia’s nuclear weapons and negotiating with Prigozhin to end the Wagner mutiny.
Alexei Dyumin
The governor of Russia’s Tula region is Putin’s former bodyguard, who plays ice hockey with the president and once saved him from a bear. He was previously deputy chief of military intelligence, and his name has been floated as a potential replacement for Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Dmitry Peskov
As the official Kremlin mouthpiece, Peskov plays a key role in Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns. He has been accused of covering up the Kremlin’s links to several poisonings, and sanctioned over his role in the Ukraine war. Peskov is a multimillionaire and has served Putin since 2000.
Ramzan Kadyrov
The head of the Chechen Republic was appointed by Putin after his father died in 2007. Known as “the Dragon”, Kadyrov has been accused of a slew of human rights abuses and he relies on Kremlin funding to rule over his nation-state. He has criticised Russia’s tactics in Ukraine but offered Putin his own troops to crush the Wagner mutiny.
Igor Girkin
Also known as Igor Strelkov, the former FSB officer and pro-Russian separatist leader helped annex Crimea in 2014. He was sentenced in absentia to life in prison over his role in the downing of flight MH17. In 2023, he started the nationalist political party Club of Angry Patriots, which sees Putin as Russia’s “only legitimate figure”.
Valentina Matviyenko
As chairwoman of the Federation Council, Putin’s “right-hand woman” holds the third-highest position in Russian politics. The Ukrainian-born former KGB agent was once seen as a potential successor, but analysts have recently noted she is losing power.
Mikhail Mishustin
The former head of Russia’s federal tax service became prime minister in 2020. In his figurehead role, he has stood firmly behind Putin through the invasion of Ukraine.
Other notable figures
Andrei Belousov (pictured) is a former economist who now serves as deputy to the prime minister. Sergei Sobyanin has been the Moscow mayor since 2010. He has been loyal to Putin while distancing himself from support of the Ukraine war. Igor Sechin heads state-owned energy giant Rosneft. The billionaire oligarch has been sanctioned over his close ties to the president.
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Given the choice, most experts agree Vladimir Putin will remain in the Kremlin for as long as he can.
He has already passed legislation to lift age limits on office holders and that change means he can lead Russia until at least the age of 83.
“My view is that there is no successor and Putin will die in office, either peacefully or he will be ousted,” Mr Wilson said.
London-based political scientist and Russian expert Mark Galeotti wrote in The Economist that this crisis would leave Vladimir Putin “less able to cope with the next one”.
“Having created an elite of ruthless opportunists who supported him less out of conviction than self-interest, he must now fear the day when enough of them conclude that the risk of moving against him is outweighed by the danger of leaving him in power.”
Posted Yesterday at 6:11am
